The US Open is right around the corner, and it's now time to start searching for this year's champion. The first two men's Majors of the season were taken by players ranking in the top-3 of the OWGR, so continuing to look at the top of the board might not be a bad strategy.
In fact, seven of the last nine US Open Champions have been priced at 30/1 or lower, suggesting this is an event where the cream usually rises to the top. That doesn't mean that we should abandon our pursuit of value, however, as there are some great each-way options that could follow in Wyndham Clark's footsteps and steal the show at Pinehurst No.2.
In this article, Golf Monthly's betting expert Barry Plummer shares his four fantastic outright tips to win the 2024 US Open...
US Open Golf Betting Preview 2024: The Course
Described as the 'pounding heart of Pinehurst Resort', this iconic venue last hosted the men's US Open in 2014. That particular edition was won emphatically by Martin Kaymer, holding off Rickie Fowler and Erik Compton by eight shots.
Measuring at 7,543 yards, this Donald Ross design has been re-worked by numerous others over the years but still maintains that classic Ross-feel. This is not a challenge for the feint-hearted, as Pinehurst No.2 will test you in a multitude of ways. The track is long, well-bunkered and heavily protected. Tough lies in the rough and fiendishly tricky green complexes await players, who will need a complete all-round performance in their attempt to fight back.
This is a true Major-test and is likely to descend into a birdie-fest, so precise approach play and a sharp short-game will certainly be required.
The Previous Winners
2023: Wyndham Clark (-10)
2022: Matt Fitzpatrick (-6)
2021: Jon Rahm (-6)
2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
2019: Gary Woodland (-13)
Who Will Win The US Open 2024? Barry's Best Bets...
In the era of Scottie Scheffler dominance that we find ourselves in, it's hard to make a case against the World No.1. It's perfectly feasible that he takes another step towards the career grand slam this week, but at 4/1 I am prepared to look elsewhere.
Instead, I am opting first for a previous winner of this event in Bryson DeChambeau (18/1). The 2020 champion has been electric in the first two Majors of the season, finishing sixth and second when he arguably could have won on both occasions.
DeChambeau is striking the ball beautifully at the moment, and ranked 3rd for Strokes Gained: Tee To Green at Valhalla last month. His short game has also been well-tuned, as he ranked 6th for Strokes Gained: Around The Green at The PGA Championship and ranks 13th for the same metric in the last twelve months.
It feels like he is building towards another Major title, and at a very generous price I can't resist taking a punt on him continuing his fine form.
My second selection from towards the top of the board is another player who has competed well in Majors so far this year. Collin Morikawa (18/1) finished tied-third at Augusta National and tied-fourth at Valhalla Golf Club, and he could be about to add a third leg to his bid for the career grand slam.
His valiant attempt to chase down a transcendent Scottie Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament last week adds further strength to his claim, and I can see him pushing the leaders again at the third Major of the season.
As a winner of both the PGA Championship and The Open Championship, he certainly knows how to get it done on very tough golf courses. Outside of the Majors he has two further top-10 finishes in four starts, and like DeChambeau is at the front of the pack for ball striking brilliance.
Morikawa ranked 4th for SG: Tee To Green and 2nd for SG: Around The Green, boasting a very similar profile to my headline pick. Crucially, he ranks 3rd in the last twelve months for driving accuracy, so should have no problem finding the elusive fairways at Pinehurst No.2 - which could be the path to success this week.
Who Will Win The US Open 2024? The Value Picks...
My next two selections represent excellent each-way value, and both have a sneaky chance of taking a first Major title.
First, Max Homa (50/1) is overpriced in my opinion. The six-time PGA Tour winner has all the qualities of a Major champion, and arrives at Pinehurst in interesting form. A tied-third finish at The Masters is perhaps the most intriguing, and he may well be disappointed not to have put in a stronger challenge to eventual champion Scottie Scheffler down the back-nine at Augusta National.
Top-10 finishes at two tough golf courses, Bay Hill and Quail Hollow, suggest he has what it takes to compete on tough tracks, and that sentiment is further supported by his win at Riviera.
Homa is very consistent across the board, ranking 14th for SG: Total in the last twelve months, and with plenty of places on offer from some bookmakers he is a no-brainer in the each-way market.
Sam Burns (70/1) is my final and biggest priced selection for the US Open, and it would not surprise me to see him lift the trophy on Sunday.
Similarly to Max Homa, Burns is a consistent type of player who boasts both length and accuracy off the tee. He ranks 17th for SG: Total in the last twelve months and has five PGA Tour wins in his impressive career so far.
A T10 and T13 finish in his last two non-Major events indicates he is playing well at the moment, while some of his best performances this year have come on tough courses (Quail Hollow, Riviera).
A missed cut at both Majors so far this season could be seen as a negative, but that has surely been the deciding factor in this price and I believe he is a much better player than the odds are suggesting.
US Open 2024: First Round Leader Picks
Due to the perhaps justified lack of value available on Scottie Scheffler, I have been eagerly scouring the markets to find a way to get him on my betting card. After storming out of the blocks at the Memorial Tournament last week, Scheffler (12/1) could be a great shout in the first round leader market.
In comparison to his outright odds, that is a much more appealing price and when you consider he opened with a 66 at The Masters and a 67 at the PGA Championship this year, he certainly has enough early tournament form to suggest he is up to the task.
Viktor Hovland (33/1) has seen a welcome uptick in form over recent weeks, and despite struggling to put four rounds together consistently this season, he has shown he has plenty of fire power in a single round.
Hovland shot three consecutive rounds of 66 at the PGA Championship last month, eventually finishing third, and also produced back-to-back rounds of 69 to kick off the week at a very tough Muirfield Village.
I'd love to see Hovland break his Major duck this week, and part of me believes he can do it if the stars align, but I feel much safer taking him in an 18-hole shootout at a generous price.
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