Butterfield Bermuda Championship Betting Picks and Predictions

The Butterfield Bermuda Championship is a relatively new professional golf tournament held on the PGA Tour that debuted in October 2019 as part of the 2020 season. The event has been held the past three years at Port Royal Golf Course in Southampton Parish, Bermuda. Originally designed to be an alternate event opposite the WGC - HSBC Championship, the tournament was elevated in 2021 to be a standalone event as the result of successive cancellations of the WGC due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The tournament now awards 500 FedEx Cup points, a prize fund of upwards of seven million dollars, and an invitation to the Masters. While many of the game’s top stars are still resting up before the elevated events kick off in January, veterans such as Brendon Todd, Luke List, Lucas Glover, and Adam Scott will still be making the trek down to Bermuda, as well as rising talents such as Akshay Bhatia and Alex Smalley.

Before we get into our picks for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship, make sure to take a moment to check out these awesome sports betting offers for this week. We have teamed up with OddsChecker to ensure that you claim $1000s in first-bet bonuses so that you can bet on these 2023 Butterfield Bermuda Championship selections with more confidence this week.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Course Preview

Port Royal

On paper, Port Royal is about as easy of a golf course as players will face on the PGA Tour all season. At 6,828 yards, it's the shortest course on the entire PGA Tour schedule. The main challenge of Port Royal is the quartet of par threes, as three of the four one-shooters measure over 210 yards and rank as the three hardest holes on the course. The 13th and 16th both measure 235 yards on the scorecard, play almost a quarter stroke over par, and rank as the hardest two holes on the entire course. On the other hand, the par fours are a complete cakewalk. Six of the 11 par fours at Port Royal measure under 400 yards, and only one measures over 460 yards. 

Port Royal features the shortest set of par fours on the entire PGA Tour schedule, and depending on wind, there's a chance that players will have a short-iron approach on every single one of them. The par fives essentially play as par 4.5s and rank as the three easiest holes on the course. The 17th and 7th both barely measure over 500 yards on the scorecard and feature over a 40% birdie rate and a 3.5% eagle rate. Players are completely losing to the field if they play the par fives in greater than 13 strokes.

Under benign conditions, it's incredibly simple to identify the type of profile that we should be looking for here: elite wedge players and Bermuda-grass putters who consistently raise their baseline in easier scoring conditions. The wind, however, adds another added wrinkle

The Bermuda Championship is also one of the most wind-affected events on the schedule. 2019 saw benign conditions, and Brendon Todd cruised to victory at 24-under par. Yet 2020 and 2021 saw more challenging conditions, as Brian Gay and Lucas Herbert both triumphed at 15 under par, a nine-stroke difference from 2019. Even day to day, wind can greatly affect scoring. In round two in 2021, Taylor Pendrith threatened a 59 in amiable conditions. He was not so lucky on Sunday, battling brutal conditions en route to a 76. That same year, Sahith Theegala shot a 66 on Friday and an 80 on Sunday. It's nearly impossible for a PGA Tour pro to experience a difference of 15 strokes in a two-day stretch, but variance like this is commonplace at Port Royal. 

Last year was a little more consistent, but even Sunday provided much tougher conditions that what we saw in the first three rounds. Port Royal is potentially the easiest golf course on Tour in calm conditions, but it can turn into an absolute grind in high winds, which are commonplace in this area of Bermuda. My guess is that we will see extremely easy conditions for the majority of this tournament, with a few pockets of high winds. This is certainly a week to monitor the weather report as we draw closer to Thursday morning.

Port Royal Key Stats

• Strokes Gained Putting: Slow Bermuda-grass Greens
• Long-Term Proximity: Inside 125 yards
• Opportunities Gained

Predict the top three finishers in order at this week's Butterfield Bermuda Championship for a chance to win this Golf Monthly x OddsChecker free-to-play golf contest.

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Butterfield Bermuda Championship: Outright Picks

Alex Smalley (+2800) (Bet $100 to collect $2,900) DraftKings has the best Alex Smalley odds

I have been long awaiting the first elusive Alex Smalley win, and this feels his most ideal opportunity. The Duke University product is a perfect fit for Port Royal, and he already has recorded back-to-back top-12 finishes in both of his appearances here. The course fit makes sense on paper as well. Smalley ranks second in this entire field at generating birdie opportunities, fifth in proximity 100-125 yards, 13th around the green on Bermuda courses, eighth on shorter courses, and eighth ball-striking in windy conditions. 

Smalley has already established himself as one of the biggest risers on Bermuda-grass and shorter courses, both boxes that Port Royal checks with flying colors. I expect Smalley to finally break through this week with his first PGA Tour victory, hopefully the first of many.

As you can see, it is imperative that you compare the Butterfield Bermuda Championship odds at OddsChecker. 

Alex Smalley is now best-priced at +2800 at DraftKings and FanDuel, +2500 at Bet365, and +2200 at BetMGM; a stark $300 to 600 difference in returns. Make sure to pick the best sportsbook for your Alex Smalley pick with OddsChecker.

Chesson Hadley (+3500) (Bet $100 to collect $3600) For the best Chesson Hadley odds go to DraftKings

I never thought I’d be typing out a sentence like this, but Chesson Hadley might just be the hottest golfer in this entire field. The 36-year-old now has back-to-back finishes in his last two starts. While we did not have shot-tracker from the World Wide Technologies Championship, but Hadley gained over nine strokes ball-striking at the Shriners. He’s made every single cut this Fall swing, and gained over 1.5 strokes ball-striking in all of his recorded starts since last season’s FedEx Cup finale. I say this unironically, but that’s a scary sign for the rest of the challengers in Bermuda. 

Hadley usually gets by on the strength of his putter, and for what it’s worth, he’s one of the best slow-green Bermuda putters in this entire field. The fact that he is doing the majority of his legwork on approach is incredibly encouraging, as it feels only a matter of time before the flat-stick comes around as well. Port Royal is already a golf course that Hadley has found success at, with back-to-back top-20 finishes in both of his appearances here. His success at Port Royal makes sense, as Hadley is one of the best wedge players and slow Bermuda-green putters in this field, two skills that provide a worthy path to the top of the leaderboard at the Butterfield Championship.